Initial Public Offering Qualitative Unsteady-State Model Based on Exogenous Variables

Initial Public Offering (IPO) decision support models are based on complex and vague network of knowledge items. However, IPO related processes based on exogenous variables are highly non-linear, vague, partially inconsistent and multidimensional systems. It is prohibitively difficult to study them on quantitative levels e.g. using numerical values, especially under conditions of capital markets with a lack of appropriate data sets. The resulting oversimplified models and therefore inapplicable results are often obtained. The purpose of this article is to explore exogenous factors that influence the decision of enterprises about IPO timing and thus to enlarge the current IPO literature with applying qualitative modelling to support CFOs when considering the timing of new issues under conditions of emerging and underdeveloped capital markets. Our IPO qualitative model is based on 12 variables and 30 qualitative relations among them. The model has 27 solutions/scenarios. All transitions are given in a form of an oriented graph which represents a qualitative equivalent of a phase portrait. The qualitative model suggests all possible developments of external, i.e. macroeconomic and capital market, environment which takes influence on IPO decisions.