Bayesian change detection in the growing window recursive strategy

A novel growing-window recursive algorithm for stochastic system change detection is derived based on the Bayesian inference principle.
Model based detectors can be formalized by two concepts in literature: (a) working in a sliding-window strategy because of time-dependent computational complexity, or (b) running in parallel, each one matched to a certain assumption on a change point. This motivates us to investigate a more refined approach which utilizes all relevant data to catch the next change point. The basic idea is to formulate a distance measure between two probabilities, one confirming the change occurrence and the other confirming no change in the system behavior. This study aims to solve the difficulty of sliding time arguments in the compared probabilities as new data are sequentially obtained. The outcome of this analysis is an algorithm that recognizes the time and magnitude of the change occurrence.